Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The European Union's updated Renewable Energy Directive (RED) sets a target for clean energy use in the EU, pushing the region to triple installed wind and photovoltaic capacity by the end of 2030. Previously on September 12, the European Parliament officially adopted a resolution to raise the renewable energy target for EU countries in 2030 from 32% to 42.5%.
It is understood that the EU this official announcement of the new energy efficiency directive, aimed at further reducing dependence on fossil fuels. Because of Europe's high degree of external energy dependence and the lack of renewable energy and other issues, Europe in 2022 since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has experienced an unprecedented energy crisis, according to historical data, European natural gas prices have reached a maximum of 10 times the level of the pre-epidemic, Europe's main market for next year's delivery of electric power futures trading price had risen to 8 times the same period last year. In this context, the European Union is bound to reduce the amount of fossil energy consumption and dependence, which will undoubtedly increase the use of new energy.
According to public data, due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict triggered by the European energy crisis, European electricity prices rose sharply, indirectly promoting China's PV exports to the EU surge. 2022 China's photovoltaic export growth rate of about 80%, a number of data hit a record high. Among them, Europe is China's largest market for module exports, accounting for more than 50% of exports in 2022.
Although Europe has enacted policies intended to promote the development of the local industrial chain, reduce China's dependence on imports of photovoltaic products, but in the short term, by the scale and level of local manufacturing and other restrictions on the difficulty of high, is expected to take a long time to develop, is still relying on China to help the development of its photovoltaic industry.
Recently, the National Energy Board released 1-8 months of national power industry statistics, new energy power generation installed capacity, 2023 January-August China's PV cumulative new installed capacity of 113.2GW, an increase of 154.5% year-on-year, wind power cumulative new installed capacity of 28.9GW, 79.2% year-on-year; August single-month data, PV new installed capacity of 16.0GW, an increase of 137.4%, wind power installed 2.61GW, up 115.7%.
Demand, photovoltaic centralized project of large quantities of construction, landing to provide the main growth driver, at the same time in the context of rising electricity prices and power trading gradually active, distributed demand to maintain a robust state, pulling the upstream shipment scale continued to grow.
Into 2023, photovoltaic new installed capacity year-on-year growth, the current centralized ground project has been started, wind and light base to give the ground project installed capacity strong support, the first batch of wind and light base total planning to install 97.05GW, has been all started, the second batch of total planning to install 455GW, of which fourteen five-year planning to put into operation during the period of 255GW, the fifteen five-year planning to put into operation during the period of 200GW!
At the same time, the domestic wind power new installed capacity also maintains year-on-year high growth trend, with the gradual lifting of future constraints, is expected to drive the start of construction, 23Q4 industrial chain scheduling and delivery or to achieve further improvement, is expected to 2023 annual new installed capacity is expected to reach 60GW, year-on-year high growth. Sea wind construction progress, recently a number of domestic sea wind project to achieve phased construction results, October domestic sea wind production delivery is expected to start, industry boom or warming, Guolian Securities (601456) is expected to 2023 domestic sea wind new installations are expected to reach 5-6GW.
Guolian Securities pointed out that the first half of the installation of high-speed growth, has raised the annual photovoltaic installation is expected in 2023, the new domestic installed wind and light scale is expected to reach 235GW (wind power 60GW + PV 175GW), wind power, photovoltaic, respectively, year-on-year growth of about 60%, 100%, demand is booming in the context of the industry chain is expected to benefit as a whole.