The leading silicon companies in the world now mainly include GCL-Poly, Tongwei Co., Ltd., OCI of Korea, Wacker of Germany, Xinte Energy, Daquan of Xinjiang, Oriental Hope, Asia Silicon Industry and Inner Mongolia Dunan, etc. Most of the global production capacity is in my country, CR4 can reach more than 56%, and the total production capacity of these companies can reach more than 80% of the total production capacity. The production concentration of silicon materials is much higher than we thought.
1. Silicon material is the raw material for the production of silicon wafers
The polysilicon industry is an asset-heavy industry. The investment of 10,000 tons of polysilicon is as high as 1 billion yuan. The general industry line is 30,000 tons of output. That is to say, the development of a polysilicon industry line requires at least 3 billion yuan in initial investment, most of which It's all cost of process equipment.
The net interest rate of polysilicon was very high before, but due to technological innovation and capacity expansion, the net interest rate gradually dropped. Some time ago due to the impact of the epidemic, the price of polysilicon dropped to the lowest level in history. The current price of silicon material is 59 yuan/kg. Although this is conducive to the further clearing of the industry's backward production capacity, the cycle of new production capacity is very long, which may cause global silicon material supply balance imbalance within a period of time, which will benefit the remaining capacity.
2. From the perspective of supply and demand
The national silicon material supply is 620,000 tons, the silicon material demand is 368,000 tons, and the supply-demand ratio is 1.68. This supply-demand ratio is relatively loose. The price of silicon materials may rebound in a short period of time, but in the long run, the increase will not Big.
Compared with other photovoltaic products such as silicon wafers, cells or modules, and glass, the existing silicon material technology cannot see many fluctuations, and the technology is relatively stable. Because silicon material is also regarded as an industry-standard product, it is difficult for companies A premium space is generated from its own product advantages, and corporate profits mainly come from the difference between its own costs and the marginal cost of the industry.
The current average production cost of silicon materials is 65.5 yuan/kg, of which electricity accounts for 34.9%, and metal silicon accounts for 28%. Tongwei's average production cost can reach 43,300 yuan/ton. It must be said that Tongwei has certain advantages compared with other companies.
3. In terms of business structure, I think that silicon is similar to glass:
Oligarchs are concentrated, with leading companies occupying most of the market share and having business cooperation with other companies;
The construction period is relatively long and requires a preliminary layout;
The gross profit margin is relatively high among other photovoltaic products;
There is no obvious technological innovation. The difference with glass is that silicon material has higher initial investment and a lower probability of being a latecomer. Glass is a trading commodity with a high price premium.
The absence of obvious innovation trends does not mean that there will be no room for technological innovation in the future. Among the top companies, GCL-Poly has been committed to technological innovation, focusing on electronic grade polycrystalline + FBR + improved Siemens technology, but has not yet achieved tens of thousands of output. Most other companies have improved the Siemens law and have no tendency to reform. Because GCL-Poly's situation is not very good now, there is not much driving force in research and development or expansion, and there is no hope for the rise of silicon material technology innovation at this stage.
4. Production capacity
GCL-Poly currently has the highest production capacity, including 70,000 tons in Xuzhou and 48,000 tons in Xinjiang. Unlike other companies, the silicon materials produced by Poly and Daquan are not sold but also used for their own silicon wafer business. In 19, the output of Polysilicon materials was 60,200 tons (the Xinjiang production capacity was fully released, and the capacity utilization rate in Xuzhou was obviously insufficient), and 38,800 tons were sold externally, accounting for 64.45%. Therefore, if only looking at the sales of silicon materials, Tongwei has a competitive advantage over Poly.
Because Tongwei's financing ability is much better than Poly, and because it has a tendency to expand production, Tongwei's production capacity may rank first in the future. It is reported that both OCI and Hanwha will partially suspend production, and in the future silicon material production capacity will be concentrated in localization, which will allow domestic companies with capital and strength to occupy more market shares in the future.
What is more certain is that the cost of new capacity is lower than that of old capacity, which gives new entrants a certain late-mover advantage. The most obvious barrier to the silicon material industry is an investment. Because it is an asset-heavy enterprise, it requires a huge initial investment. Under the background of uncertain macroeconomics and falling silicon material prices, it is unlikely that there will be rear overtaking in the short term. appear.
Furthermore, the financing capacity cannot be stronger than that of the leading listed company. If it only builds a production capacity of 120,000 yuan, there is no competitive advantage. As for technical barriers, geographical barriers are relatively low. But it does not rule out the emergence of "dark horses", such as Eastern Hope, which entered the photovoltaic industry in 2013, and its production expansion is relatively fast. But the growth of each new entrant requires a process, which can give us investors time to conduct adequate research.
The top ten global silicon production capacity companies have changed slowly, and Chinese companies have obvious competitive advantages. Among them, Tongwei's Sichuan Yongxiang has grown rapidly and is expected to surpass Jiangsu Zhongneng in the next two years.
The photovoltaic industry is a promising industry, and silicon is the main raw material for solar panels. Based on the current lack of power for the overall expansion of the silicon material industry and Tongwei's relatively strong financing and expansion capabilities, Tongwei's competitive advantage will be obvious in the next few years.