According to an article by Warda Ajaz on the CarbonBrief website, the vast majority of the 141 GW of planned gas-fired power generation capacity in East Asia is currently located in two countries, China (93 GW) and South Korea (20 GW). At the same time, both countries are committed to achieving net zero emissions by mid-century, with South Korea aiming for 2050 and China aiming for 'carbon neutrality' by 2060.
As wind, solar and storage costs continue to plummet and international gas prices have soared over the past 12 months, the relative competitiveness of electricity versus gas and renewables has changed significantly. Analysis by think tank TransitionZero compares these alternatives based on Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE), defined as "the average total cost of building and operating a power plant per unit of electricity generated over its lifetime".
Analysis shows that in South Korea, the LCOE for solar plus storage is currently US$120/MWh, while the LCOE for natural gas is US$134/MWh. For China, TransitionZero analysis shows that onshore wind power with storage currently costs $73/MWh, compared to $79/MWh for gas-fired generation. Its figures suggest that solar with storage will also be cheaper than gas-fired generation by next year.
This presents an opportunity for countries such as China and South Korea to avoid building large numbers of gas-fired power plants and to leapfrog to cheaper renewable energy sources.