A total solar eclipse will be visible in the United States from noon to afternoon local time on 8 April, seven years after the last total solar eclipse.
Astronomical forecasts show that the shadow of this total solar eclipse will be about 200 kilometers wide, stretching from Texas in the south to Maine in the north, with the maximum duration of the total phase of the eclipse being 4 minutes and 28 seconds, almost twice as long as the 2017 total solar eclipse.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA estimates that about 6.5 GW of centralized PV plants will be in an area of complete sunlight shade during the total solar eclipse, covering a narrow band of totality from Texas to Maine. In addition, the area affected by partial solar shading during peak PV hours will be even more extensive, with a total of 84.8 GW of affected plants for more than two hours. This means that more than 90GW of PV power plants will be affected by this total solar eclipse.
EIA says that centralized power plants of 1MW and above will see a significant reduction in power generation. Grid system operators will need to add other sources of electricity to balance the reduction in PV generation. At the same time, due to the reduction in distributed PV generation, households, and commercial and industrial users will need to rely more on the grid for their electricity, increasing the load on the grid.
In addition, energy storage will play an important role during a total solar eclipse. Currently, there is 15.4GW of installed energy storage in the U.S., compared to just 0.6GW when the last total solar eclipse occurred in 2017.
Regionally, PV plants in Texas will be the most affected, losing as much as 90-99% of their PV capacity. Much of California is within partial shade and PV generation is expected to be reduced by 40-59%, but California has a large amount of both centralized and distributed installations, making the impact of the eclipse even more significant.
Since the 2017 total solar eclipse, installed PV capacity in the United States has grown rapidly. By the end of 2023, the installed capacity of centralized PV projects will reach 91 GW, which represents 8% of the total electricity installed in the US. During the midday hours of the spring and summer seasons, PV can be the third largest source of electricity generation in the United States.
In California, PV has become the largest source of midday electricity generation. And in Texas, Florida, the rest of the East Coast, and the Southwest, PV has also become the second-largest source of midday power generation.
In 2017, the eclipse had little impact on the power system, and PV was only the fifth-largest source of electricity in the U.S., behind natural gas, coal, nuclear, and hydropower, the EIA said. But seven years later, PV's impact in the U.S. is incomparable.EIA expects PV to remain the third-largest source of electricity in the U.S. for the day, behind natural gas and nuclear, even during a total solar eclipse.EIA also expects PV to be the third-largest source of electricity in the U.S. for the day.