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How important are these factors? It's very important, says Narayana Kocherlakota of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. He recently claimed that the "majority" of unemployment in the United States is due to this mismatch between supply and demand, which makes it difficult to solve through loose monetary policy. This statement caused an uproar. Most U.S. policymakers believe that if structural unemployment increases, it is only marginal.
One of the few specific assessments came from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). A recent report compares the skill levels of the unemployed and the skill indicators needed by employers, and calculates the state-level mismatch index. The report assesses local stability using local supply-cut and foreclosure data. It was found that one of these factors would expand the influence of another. The authors conclude that it is precisely because of this rigidity that the unemployment rate is in line with the stable inflation (generally structural) rate, rising from about 5% in 2007 to 6% to 6.75% in 2009.
The weak employment recovery may push up these estimates. Long-term unemployed (those who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks) now account for almost half of the unemployed. Now there is a concern that the unemployed army is increasingly divorced from the employment information channels, losing new employment opportunities, shrinking their skills and unable to find employment.
Lay off intermediate skilled workers
The downturn may have accelerated the creation of long-term job trends that had previously been masked by low- and medium-skilled jobs created by the housing boom. New technology has led to the hollowing and polarization of the labor force. The employment growth of middle-skilled workers has declined steadily due to automation, but the productivity of high-skilled workers has increased rapidly and flourished.
Separating cyclical and structural causes is tricky and may lead to overly pessimistic conclusions in a downturn. The authors of the IMF study note that structural barriers to employment growth may be temporary and will fade as the economy recovers. The rate of workers leaving unemployment is generally low among different industries, which indicates that skill mismatch is not as serious as weak demand in affecting employment. Lack of price and wage pressures points to severe weakness in the labour market.