China PV In The Next 5 Years

- Oct 28, 2020-

    On April 9 this year, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Preparation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for Renewable Energy Development". The notice pointed out that renewable energy will become an increase in energy consumption during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. The main body and put forward the strategic goal of 20% of non-fossil energy consumption in 2030. According to the plan of the Energy Administration, the report of the "14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development" will be completed by the end of September, and the "14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development (Draft for Comment)" will be completed by the end of November, and in 2021 The national "14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development (Draft for Review)" will be formed before the end of March.

    The strategic goal of 20% of non-fossil energy consumption may be completed ahead of schedule: The 14th Five-Year Plan issued a draft for comments at the end of November, and the planning notice at the beginning of April pointed out the guidance target of "20% of non-fossil energy consumption by 2030". This goal has been mentioned many times before at the national level. In 2019, my country's non-fossil energy accounted for 15.3% of energy consumption, completing the 13th Five-Year Plan one year ahead of schedule. Considering that the cost of renewable energy will fall further during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and China’s leadership and policy levels attach importance to renewable energy, we expect that the strategic goal of 20% of non-fossil energy consumption will be completed ahead of schedule.

    During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the average annual installed capacity of domestic photovoltaics is expected to be 78GW+, and the world is expected to be 266GW+. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, we predict the domestic and global photovoltaic installed capacity, and estimate that the average annual domestic photovoltaic installed capacity in the next five years will be 78GW, photovoltaic + wind power will reach 103GW; the global average annual photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 266GW, photovoltaic + Wind power reached 348GW. At the same time, it is estimated that the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption is increased by 1% every time, and other assumptions remain unchanged, the domestic corresponding photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by 18GW, and the global corresponding photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by 64GW.

    On October 22, at the "14th China New Energy International Summit Forum and 2020 Datong Energy Revolution Summit" hosted by the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce New Energy Chamber of Commerce, Longi Green Energy Technology Chairman Zhong Baoshen spoke about the "14th Five-Year" photovoltaic industry Development trends and other content expressed their views:

1. Photovoltaic power generation can achieve "a dime per kilowatt-hour"

    More than 70% of the global polysilicon materials come from China, 99.5% of photovoltaic production equipment is domestically produced, the photoelectric conversion efficiency has been increased from 14%-15% in 2010 to 23%, and the cost has dropped by more than 90%. "In a recent tender in Inner Mongolia, the lowest winning power price for photovoltaic power plants fell to 0.26 yuan/kWh. Excluding non-technical costs, photovoltaic power generation has achieved'one dime per kilowatt-hour' in many countries and regions." Zhong Baoshen said, " In 2010, the cost per kilowatt-hour of photovoltaic power generation was as high as 4-5 yuan. Nowadays, the bidding price for the Portuguese project with richer light resources is 1.316 cents/kWh, which is less than 1 cent in RMB.

2. Reduce non-technical costs and "lighten the burden" for the photovoltaic industry

    “In terms of technical costs, thanks to the efforts of the entire Chinese photovoltaic industry, my country’s photovoltaic technology innovation has been at the forefront of the world. However, in terms of non-technical costs, my country’s photovoltaic industry has more room for cost reduction.” Zhong Baoshen said.

    At present, due to some taxation issues, the development cost of photovoltaic power plants in my country is greatly affected. Zhong Baoshen said that the problem of land taxes and fees is more prominent in deserts and Gobi areas with better light resources. Photovoltaic companies also participate in local environmental governance while developing photovoltaic power plants. However, photovoltaic companies have to pay land taxes and fees that are not uniform for this purpose, which greatly increases the development cost of photovoltaic power plants. In addition, since the value-added tax is currently "deducted" rather than "refunded", it will affect the cash flow of photovoltaic companies. Zhong Baoshen estimated that due to the "deduction" method of value-added tax, it may increase the cost of the development of photovoltaic power plants by about 5%.

    In terms of financing, Zhong Baoshen also expressed the hope that the country can provide a green financing policy with low-interest rates to support the development of the photovoltaic industry.

3. It is expected that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the photovoltaic industry will have great development

    According to relevant data, my country is rich in light resources. The theoretical reserves of terrestrial solar energy resources in the country are about 1.86 trillion KW. As of the end of 2019, the cumulative installed capacity is only 204 million KW, and there is still huge room for development in the future. "In view of this, LONGi actively promotes the photovoltaic industry to play an active role in ecological development and energy transformation. We believe that the economics of the photovoltaic industry determines that it can play a more active role in the realization of climate change, ecological development, and carbon neutrality goals. Effective role." Zhong Baoshen said: "During the '14th Five-Year Plan' period, my country's newly installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to reach more than 400GW."

    In the future, photovoltaics may gradually grow from auxiliary energy as the main energy source: The Energy Bureau previously proposed that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, renewable energy will become the main body of increase in energy consumption. It is expected that by 2035, renewable energy will basically meet the increase in energy consumption. , Renewable energy has become the main body of total energy consumption. Photovoltaic energy is renewable energy with the largest cost reduction in the past ten years. At the current time, parity has been achieved overseas. China will enter the era of parity next year. As the cost of photovoltaic power and energy storage continues to decline, photovoltaics may gradually grow from auxiliary energy. Main energy source.